Reports

Executive summary

Caribou, wolf and alternate prey monitoring

• In the Jasper-Banff Local Population Unit (LPU), one VHF radio collar remains active from the original cohort of caribou collared during 2003–2010.
• In March 2021, six caribou were collared with satellite GPS radio collars.
• Caribou population monitoring continues via non-invasive methods (scat DNA collection).
• Currently, only one wolf pack (Sunwapta) is collared in the Jasper-Banff LPU. In the À la Pêche LPU (in northern Jasper National Park), we have been monitoring the Starlight wolf pack since 2019–2020, where there is currently one radio collar.
• There was no new elk research during 2017–2020, but three radio collars remain functional from previous years’ research (see older progress reports), and we continue to monitor these collars.
• In 2017, we initiated a pilot project monitoring deer abundance in the Three-Valley Confluence in response to changes in forest structure caused by wildlife risk reduction in this region. Results from the project confirmed that estimating deer abundance in our study area is feasible. Winter abundance (with 95% confidence intervals) was estimated at 75 (37–153) for mule deer and 124 (70-–218) for white-tailed deer. The project was expanded and re-implemented in 2021–2022.
• Changes in alternate prey (moose, elk, deer) populations on Jasper’s north boundary, related to predator control activities in Alberta, are of interest to Parks Canada. A moose survey was conducted in March 2020, and camera data will be integrated with moose survey results to help monitor changes in large ungulate populations in this area of reduced wolf density.

Caribou surveys

• We conducted aerial surveys in the fall of 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 in the Tonquin, Brazeau, and Maligne ranges to collect data for minimum population counts and calf-to-cow ratios and to collect scat samples for DNA genotyping and population estimates.
• During the 2017 surveys, we counted a minimum of 18 caribou in the Tonquin, eight caribou in the Brazeau, and three caribou in the Maligne.
• During 2018 surveys, we counted a minimum of 27 caribou in the Tonquin and 10 caribou in the Brazeau herd. We did not observe any caribou in the Maligne range.
• During 2019 surveys, we counted a minimum of 24 caribou in the Tonquin and eight caribou in the Brazeau herd. We did not observe any caribou in the Maligne range.
• During 2020 surveys, we counted a minimum of 23 caribou in the Tonquin and seven caribou in the Brazeau herd. We did not observe any caribou in the Maligne range.
• Since 2017, caribou have been repeatedly observed on remote cameras near Fortress Lake and in the Chaba Headwaters, suggesting movement farther west than previously documented, with potential connections to caribou herds in British Columbia.

Caribou population estimates and adult females

• For caribou in the Tonquin during 2017-2020, we report findings from an Integrated Population Model (IPM), which incorporates multiple data sources (minimum counts, calf-to-cow ratios from surveys, population estimates from scat DNA, survival estimates from scat DNA) to produce a population estimate.
• The Maligne and Brazeau populations are too small to use statistical modelling, and therefore we only report minimum counts for these herds (see above).
• In 2017, the population estimate for the Tonquin was 29 caribou (95% credible interval: 27–31). The predicted number of adult females in the Tonquin was 8 (6–11).
• In 2018, the population estimate for the Tonquin was 33 caribou (31–35). The predicted number of adult females in the Tonquin was 9 (6–11).
• In 2019, the population estimate for the Tonquin was 35 caribou (33–36). The predicted number of adult females in the Tonquin was 8 (6–11).
• In 2020, the population estimate for the Tonquin was 38 caribou (49–55). The predicted number of adult females was 9 (7–12).

Reproductive rates: calf-to-cow ratios

• Calf recruitment surveys are no longer conducted (insufficient radio collars to locate caribou), and we now rely on fall survey data and results from the IPM to inform calf-to-cow ratios.
• The total number of calves to cows observed in the Tonquin herd was high during 2017 to 2020 (i.e., calf-to-cow ratios >0.5), but the absolute number of calves is small due to a low number of cows in the Tonquin.
• Calf-to-cow ratios and 90% confidence intervals calculated from visual survey results during 2017 to 2020 for the Tonquin were 0.67 (0.29–1.05), 0.58 (0.37–0.79), 0.67 (0.38–0.95), and 0.67 (0.39–0.94), respectively.
• Calf-to-cow ratios and 95% credible intervals estimated by IPM during 2017 to 2020 were 0.78 (0.38–1.0), 0.799 (0.43–1.0), 0.83 (0.48–1.0), and 0.82 (0.46–1.0), respectively.

Caribou survival

• Survival rates and 95% credible intervals estimated from the IPM for adult female survival in the Tonquin herd over the study period reported here were 0.92 (0.84–0.98), 0.76 (0.67–0.85), 0.89 (0.82–0.95) and 0.99 (0.97–1.0). Adult male survival 0.93 (0.86–0.98), 0.78 (0.7–0.87), 0.90 (0.84–0.95), 0.99 (0.98–1.0).

Caribou population abundance and trend

• The Tonquin herd size reached a low in 2015-2017, and the herd has since stabilized or increased slightly. However, the number of adult females in the herd continues to be very low (<10)The stabilization in population numbers is therefore attributed to high calf survival and growth in non-reproductive age classes (calf, juvenile, and sub-adult), but the herd is unable to recover quickly due to the small number of female calves that survive to the adult age class, coupled with low reproductive rates (i.e., one calf per year).
• Caribou in the Brazeau herd were observed within the Brazeau range west of Highway 93 during 2017–2020 in continued low numbers, with the genetic and survey data identifying only 2 or 3 adult females. The number of females observed has been less than 5 since 2015.
• Caribou in the Maligne herd were last observed in October 2017 during an annual aerial survey. Scat DNA analysis from samples collected in October 2017 confirmed the presence of four individuals: an adult female (collared), her male calf from 2015, and her female calves from 2016 and 2017. The collared adult female from 2017 was found dead in March 2018, but we observed signs of other live caribou at the site. Three independent survey flights in 2018, two surveys in 2019, and a final survey in 2020 failed to locate caribou, tracks, or signs in the Maligne range. Given the number of surveys conducted, conditions under which the surveys were conducted (good sightability), the timing of surveys (time of year), and locations of the surveys (i.e., highest probability areas for sighting caribou), it is unlikely that any caribou remain in the Maligne range.
• When caribou herds decline to <10 reproductive females, they have a very low probability of persisting over the next 20 years. The threshold of 10 reproductive females is known as the quasi-extinction threshold and is based on Population Viability Analyses from several herds, with guidance from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria for assessing extinction risk. Once herds are at or past this threshold, caribou may continue to exist in a region for many years but will ultimately continue to decline to extirpation.
• All herds in the Jasper-Banff LPU are currently near or beyond the quasi-extinction threshold, meaning that the number of females is too low for the herd to overcome baseline threats and recover without management interventions. We currently estimate ~9 reproductive females remain in the Tonquin, and ≤3 reproductive females in the Brazeau herd.

À la Pêche caribou

• The À la Pêche caribou herd range includes northern Jasper National Park and provincial lands outside the park. The À la Pêche caribou herd has been increasing over the past five years, due to the local reductions in predator density resulting from wolf control activities in Alberta. As an increasing caribou population, the À la Pêche caribou herd is a potential candidate as a source for population augmentation in the Jasper-Banff LPU.
• According to Parks Canada records across several decades, some individuals from the À la Pêche caribou herd reside year-round in Jasper, particularly in the Blue Creek area (unpublished Parks Canada records).
• The province of Alberta continues to monitor the À la Pêche herd’s trend and spatial habitat use. Parks Canada’s review of the seventeen caribou GPS-collared in the À la Pêche range during 2001–2020 indicated that any caribou that were captured within Jasper National Park in the winter remained year-round mountain residents, i.e., they remained within or very close to JNP throughout the year and did not migrate out of the mountains.
• In late October during 2019 and 2020, we conducted post-migration survey flights in the Blue Creek area to assess the minimum number of caribou in the À la Pêche herd residing year-round within Jasper National Park. We observed 47 caribou in 2019 and 40 caribou in 2020.

Wolf density

• Wolf density may be the single most important factor that predicts caribou decline. The federal Recovery Strategy recommends that a density of <3 wolves per 1000 km² is required to ensure caribou herds can be sustainable.
• We currently monitor wolf density using remote cameras, using camera location, timing of photos, patterns in coat colours, and pack numbers to identify unique wolf packs.
• Wolf density has continued to decline from 2003–2005 when density was ~4.2–5.5 wolves/1000 km². The mean density during 2007–2013 was ~3 wolves/1000 km², and since 2013/2014, density has been below 3 wolves/1000 km².
• During 2016–2017, 2017–2018, 2018–2019, and 2019–2020, wolf density was calculated at 2.0 wolves/1000 km², 1.6 wolves/1000 km², 1.8 wolves/1000 km², and 2.0 wolves/1000 km², respectively.

Wolf response to seasonal trail closures in caribou ranges

• In winter, trails that lead into caribou habitat are closed to human access to prevent snow compaction and subsequent facilitated wolf access into caribou habitat and elevated predation risk for caribou. Seasonal (winter) closures of trails in caribou habitat began in 2009 and continued into 2020 and have varied in timing and location across that period.
• Previous analyses have detailed how wolves respond to closures, but we updated the analysis to assess seasonal trail closures on wolf habitat selection at two spatial scales using wolf data from 2003–2017.
• At the territory scale over the entire winter, the majority of wolves selected for packed trails, and although all wolves avoided higher elevations, most showed weak selection for caribou habitat.
• When comparing wolf habitat selection seasonally between the closed (packed trails less available to wolves) compared to the open periods (packed trails were more available to wolves), results varied among individual wolves, but generally wolf selection for packed trails increased. Selection of caribou habitat between closed and open periods was inconsistent and imprecise (low sample sizes).
• At the local habitat selection scale over the entire winter, most wolves selected open/packed trails, and all wolves avoided movements toward higher elevations.
• When comparing wolf habitat selection of packed trails in caribou habitat during the closed (packed trails less available) compared to open periods (packed trails more available), most wolves showed stronger selection for trails when there were more packed trails available, but results were imprecise.

Starlight wolf pack predation patterns

• Predation by wolves on caribou is a key threat known to limit caribou population growth. The Starlight wolf pack uses territory both within and outside of JNP and overlaps with the range of the À la Pêche caribou population.
• During August 2019 we conducted fieldwork in JNP, Willmore Wilderness Park, and Rock-Lake Solomon Creek Wildland Park to collect information on wolf predation patterns from potential wolf kill sites, as identified through cluster analysis of GPS collar data (Alberta Research and Collection Permit #19-493).
• Prey identified at kill sites included elk, moose, caribou, marmots, and bears.
• Of the seven GPS clusters identified as wolf kill sites, only one was a caribou kill, suggesting that the Starlight pack may generally rely on non-caribou prey.

Conservation breeding and future caribou recovery

Working with partners and experts, Parks Canada has drafted a preliminary project proposal to recover caribou herds in Jasper National Park through a conservation breeding and augmentation program. This proposal is currently under consideration by the Parks Canada Agency for implementation.

Executive summary

Required knowledge for informed management relies on the caribou monitoring program, the results of which are reported herein. We report here on the results obtained in the past 3.5 years of our caribou monitoring program, from mid-2013 to March 2017.

Radio-collaring

• Four radio collars remain on caribou in South Jasper National Park, as our population monitoring has moved wholly toward non-invasive methods.
• We have had limited success locating and collaring wolves in the Signal, Sunwapta, and Brazeau packs over the past 3 years (compared to past years), and currently have only the Sunwapta pack collared (3 wolves) in addition to 1 lone wolf in the Sunwapta region.
• Previously collared elk continue to be monitored; there are currently seven radio collared elk.
• Deer capture continued in 2014 to support previous work (see past progress reports) and an additional 6 deer were collared (of 31 captures in clover traps) and another 4 mule deer were ground darted for collaring.

Caribou population estimates

• Fall 2013 population minimum count in Maligne was 5; Brazeau was 8; and Tonquin was 38. Population estimate from scat DNA for the Tonquin was 45 (38-75, 95% CI). The visual survey population estimate for the Tonquin was 34 (27-64, 95% CI).
• Fall 2014 population minimum count in Maligne was 2; Brazeau was 9; and Tonquin was 29. Population estimate from scat DNA for the Tonquin was 34 (34-34, 95% CI). The visual survey population estimate for the Tonquin was 33 (29-52, 95% CI).
• Fall 2015 population minimum count in Maligne was 3; Brazeau was 12; and Tonquin was 25. Population estimate from scat DNA for the Tonquin was 26 (26-35, 95% CI). We did not do a visual survey estimate as the number of available marks is too low.
• Fall 2016 population minimum count in Maligne was 3; Brazeau was 7; and Tonquin was 22. Population estimate from scat DNA for the Tonquin was 31 (26-56, 95% CI). We did not do a visual survey estimate as the number of available marks is too low.

Calf recruitment

• There are no longer enough collars to conduct spring calf surveys (too hard to locate caribou without collars), so we rely on fall composition ratios to inform recruitment values.
• Our visual survey results show an average of 38 calves to 100 cows since 2003 (geometric mean, 90% CI 26-52) across all herds combined, and some of the higher recorded values have been in recent years (but with low sample sizes and precision).

Fecal DNA population monitoring

• Ten years of scat DNA amplification and genotyping has provided data on population size, survival, and recruitment over time.
• From 2006-2015 a total of 1831 samples from the Tonquin were collected, from which 1678 were successfully genotyped and a total of 182 unique individuals were identified (94f, 82m).
• The Tonquin population rate of change declined over the study period and especially in 2008, 2013-2014 lambda was significantly <1 (Table 5). The overall lambda for the study period was 0.86 [95% CI 0.82, 0.92]. Updated lambda for 2014-2015 was 0.91 (0.69, 1.21), but survival continued to be low 0.71 (0.51, 0.84).

Caribou population trend and abundance

• Caribou continue to decline in Jasper National Park.
• When herds decline to include <10 reproductive females, they have been shown to have a very low probability of persistence over the next 20 years. Once herds are at or past this point caribou may still exist in a region for many years, but they will ultimately continue to decline to extirpation. This limit of 10 reproductive females is known as the quasi-extinction threshold and is based on Population Viability Analyses from several herds, and with guidance from the IUCN criteria for assessing extinction risk.
• All herds in south Jasper are near or beyond the quasi-extinction threshold, which means that the number of females is so small, the herd is not capable of overcoming baseline threats and recovering on its own. We estimate ~11 reproductive females remain in the Tonquin, and with fewer than this in other areas, we are at high risk of losing the Brazeau and Maligne herds.
• In >10 years of DNA monitoring we have detected only rare male movement, and no female movement, between the herds.

Wolf density and delayed access

• Wolf density may be the single most important factor that predicts caribou decline.
• In winter 2013/14 within the south Jasper predator/prey area (which includes areas where wolf packs overlap with caribou herds and each wolf pack’s entire range), wolf density was 2.0 wolves/1000km² including 12.5% loners.
• In 2014/15 density was estimated at 2.2 wolves/1000km² (estimated 15 wolves plus 12.5% loners).
• In 2015/16 density was calculated at 2.5 wolves/1000km² (with 5% loners because a known loner was accounted for in the total number already). The higher value is due to a temporary pack that was using the townsite area in early 2016.
• Density has continued to decline from 2003-2005 when wolf density was ~4.2-5.5 wolves/1000km², and 2007-2010 was ~3 wolves/1000km²; since 2011, density has been below 3 wolves/1000km².
• Delayed access is implemented in all caribou habitat since 2014. In the Tonquin caribou range all access is prohibited from November 1 through February 15 inclusive. And for the Maligne-Brazeau range, all access is prohibited from November 1 to February 28. In 2014/15 we had 2 serious incursions (trails that penetrate >2km from closure boundary and access habitat above 1500m) into closed areas, and in 2015/16, we recorded only 1 serious incursion into caribou habitat.
• The presence of a trail on wolf sinking depth is large and significant from mid-February to end of March, so that trails clearly offer a benefit to wolves travelling in deep snow; sinking potential (off-trail) did not change significantly as winter progressed (there was minimal hardening of snow sufficient to support wolves).

Critical habitat and assessing impacts

• Critical habitat in Jasper National Park was designated when the Recovery Strategy was released in June 2014.
• Parks Canada has developed a process to assess impacts to caribou individuals or critical habitat and have assessed many projects in critical habitat under this framework.

Recovery actions

• We have refined existing recovery actions so they align better with new information (e.g. adjusting the timing and length of the caribou 70 km/h zone on the Icefields Parkway).
• We have reviewed all potential actions that have been, or could be, undertaken by Parks Canada in better understanding and informing our next conservation steps.

Communications

Between late 2013 to 2016 fiscal years, we delivered numerous messages and presentations related to caribou to a wide audience in the form of field trips, interpretation booths, television appearances, informal and formal talks, and participation in Parks Canada events to meet our project’s outreach and education, and visitor experience goals.

Captive breeding and future caribou conservation

Parks Canada has been examining options to recover small herds and we provide a summary of these options.

Executive summary

Required knowledge for informed management relies on the caribou monitoring program, the results of which are reported herein. The caribou program has continued to grow to incorporate additional partnerships with universities. It has also expanded to include other species that are important to understanding the predator-prey dynamic in Jasper National Park and its effects on caribou persistence (Hebblewhite et al. 2007). We report here on the results obtained in the past 3 years of our caribou monitoring and research program.

Radio-collaring

• In the past, we aimed to maintain 20 VHF radio-collars on caribou to maximize precision in population parameter estimates and trend; however, having used scat DNA collection in parallel with collar surveys since 2006, we are increasingly confident that we can rely on scat DNA non-invasive population estimation, and as a result stopped capturing and collaring caribou in 2011. There remain 8 active VHF collars on the air as of August 2013.
• The current caribou collar distribution is 1 VHF collar in the Brazeau, 2 in the Maligne, and 5 in the Tonquin.
• We have maintained collars on wolves in the Signal, Sunwapta, and Brazeau packs for much of the past few years and in addition have collared the Pyramid and Robson packs. At the time of publication, we suspect we’ve lost contact with the Brazeau and Sunwapta packs, and are unsure of the Pyramid pack’s home range territory.
• In collaboration with the University of Calgary we have collared 21 deer in the early winters of 2012 and 2013 to initiate a study of deer population trends. This is an important element in understanding the predator-prey dynamic in Jasper National Park and work will continue in 2014.
• We have captured 2 new elk and recaptured 7 elk to replace expiring GPS collars with VHF collars, which were used to conduct an elk population survey in 2013. Additionally, 7 townsite elk were captured to support a University of Alberta aversive conditioning study.

Caribou population estimates

• Fall 2012 population estimate was not possible to calculate as we were unable to conduct the Tonquin survey; we are awaiting DNA population results
• Fall 2011 population estimate: 71 caribou (90% C.I. 64 - 92). We observed 64 caribou and saw 9 of 12 radio collars in the Tonquin.
• Fall 2010 population estimate: 73 caribou (90% C.I. 72 - 102) plus 6 in the Maligne giving an estimate of79 (90% C.I. 78 - 108). We observed 61 caribou in the Tonquin/Brazeau, and a minimum of 72 including the Maligne and missing animals found with telemetry. We observed 10 of 12 radio collars.
• Fall 2009 population estimate: 87 caribou (90% C.I. 87 – 96). We observed 87 caribou and saw all available radio collars (12 in the Tonquin/Brazeau).

This shows a marked decline from the previous years’ estimates (2008: 127 caribou (90% C.I. 114-157), 2007: 93 caribou (90% C.I. 82-117), 2006: 151 caribou (90% C.I. 126-207) and 2005: 147 caribou (90% C.I. 104-176). These were in turn well below the 1988 minimum number of 153 caribou (population guess: 175-200).

Calf recruitment

• March 2013: 53 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 37-74)
• March 2012: 41 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 32-50)
• March 2011: 20 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 17-23)
• March 2010: 19 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 10-28)

In the four years preceding this report, recruitment values fluctuated high-low-high-low. Calf recruitment was higher in March 2009 (39 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 23-54) than in 2008 (21 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 13-30)); higher again in 2007 (42 calves per 100 cows (90% CL = 31-53)) and lower in 2006 (13 calves per 100 cows (90% CL = 7-20)). Decreasing sample size in recent years has led to greater uncertainty, but the trend in the last 2 years has been positive and there is a statistically significant difference between 2010 and 2013. Given low numbers of collars and difficulty locating caribou in March, we are unlikely to continue calf surveys in the future.

Fecal DNA research

In 2006 we partnered with the University of Manitoba to initiate a population monitoring research program using fecal DNA. Visual and scat population estimation techniques have produced similar results, though the fecal DNA estimate produces higher precision. The method has produced reliable results and we intend to use this less invasive technique for future population monitoring.

Fecal morphometric and hormone content have been shown to be useful in identifying demographics (age-class) of caribou in Jasper. Non-invasive fecal sampling for use in cohort analysis and in combination with mark-recapture methods may provide valuable insight on the age-structure of woodland caribou populations.

From 2006-2012 1,646 samples were amplified at 10 microsatellite loci and unique individuals were further amplified at an additional 8 loci. Parentage assignment was determined and a consequent pedigree was constructed. Parent-offspring and sibling relationships were found between individuals belonging to different herds indicating that some movement of caribou has occurred between herds. Fecal DNA has the potential to assess the reproductive fitness of animals in a population, the social structure of caribou, and for monitoring caribou movements within and between populations.

Wolf movement and kill-rates: Cavell Road winter closure

Access of winter caribou habitat by wolves can be artificially enhanced by the maintenance of packed snow trails and roads. Improved travel rates by wolves on packed snow trails has been demonstrated by telemetry studies throughout Canadian caribou range, as well as within Jasper National Park itself. Since 2009, there has been a Superintendent’s closure of the Astoria trail/Cavell Meadows area from first snowfall until February 15th. Preliminary results of travel and kill rate analyses indicate that wolves selected packed or cleared trails/roads for travel, travelled faster on packed or cleared trails/roads, and were more likely to use the Cavell Valley when the road was packed compared to when it was not. Further analysis is ongoing.

Canadian Rockies Woodland Caribou Project

Parks Canada collaborated in this regional research program exploring predator/prey dynamics by relocating wolf kill-sites from four packs within Jasper National Park. Packs varied in their diet composition, location of kill-sites, and number of kills per unit time. Raw data were provided to PhD candidate Nick DeCesare for analysis, the results of which can be seen in a series of publications over the past several years. These analyses contribute both to our understanding of the predator / prey dynamics in the park as well as to conservation applications, such as the role of caribou translocations in augmenting small herds.

Jasper data were also shared with post-doctoral fellow Dr. Hugh Robinson who modeled relationships between fire, caribou, wolves, elk and moose to aid prescribed fire and caribou recovery goals.

Primary prey research – elk and FireSmart

Through the FireSmart program forest modification has occurred throughout the Three Valley Confluence area of Jasper National Park. An ongoing study with colleagues at the University of Calgary will aim to determine how elk are affected by forest modification, examine the recourses that are critical to elk in Jasper National Park, and identify factors and variables that might influence the species’ decline.

Consultations

Following the release of the Conservation Strategy for Southern Mountain Caribou in Canada’s National Parks, an on-line comment form was available on the Parks Canada website. The public was invited to submit their feedback over a two-month period. The Conservation Strategy and background information were also sent to Aboriginal partners of the mountain national parks and consultations were held with the First Nations through the spring and summer of 2012.

Generally, all showed strong support for caribou recovery, and First Nations groups expressed a desire to be more actively engaged in the process. Feedback from both the public and Aboriginal engagement activities will help inform management decisions for caribou conservation and guide revisions to the strategy.

Communications

Jasper National Park staff have delivered messages and presentations related to caribou to a wide audience in the form of field trips, lawn displays, television appearances, informal and formal talks, and participation in Parks Canada events. They have also published caribou project research in several peer-reviewed scientific journals.

Executive summary

Phase I of the Jasper Woodland Caribou Recovery Action Plan was implemented in 2005. Its larger goals were to increase awareness of woodland caribou and recommend a suite of actions to mitigate factors contributing to caribou decline. Implementation of recovery actions began in the 2005-2006 fiscal year, shortly after the Plan was signed by Parks Canada. In the fall of 2007 the Mountain Parks Caribou Coordinating Committee initiated development of a conservation strategy for caribou in the mountain national parks. The strategy is intended to contribute towards meeting Parks Canada’s obligations under Canada's National Parks Act and the Species at Risk Act. Key direction for caribou recovery and sustainability, that is aligned with Parks Canada’s mandate of ecological integrity, public education and visitor experience, will be formulated with the participation of the public and Aboriginal groups and incorporated into the respective management plans during the 2009 review.

Required knowledge for informed management relies on the caribou monitoring program, the results of which are reported herein. The program has grown in the past few years to incorporate several partnerships with university research. It has also expanded to include other species that are important to understanding the predator-prey dynamic in Jasper National Park and its effects on caribou persistence (e.g. Hebblewhite et al. 2007). We report on the results we’ve obtained in the past 2 years of our caribou monitoring program.

Radio-collaring

• Aim to maintain 20 radio-collars (emphasis on VHF collars) on caribou in order to maximize precision in population parameter estimates and trend. Current collar distribution is 4 in the Brazeau (0 GPS; 4 VHF), 1 in the Maligne (0 GPS; 1 VHF), and 13 in the Tonquin (3 GPS; 10 VHF).
• Parks Canada has maintained GPS and VHF collars on wolves in the Signal, Sunwapta, and Brazeau packs.

Population estimates

• Fall 2008 population estimate: 127 caribou (90% C.I. 114-157). We observed 106 caribou and saw 15 of 18 radio-collars.
• Fall 2007 population estimate: 93 caribou (90% C.I. 82-117. We observed 74 caribou and 15 of 19 radio-collars. Although a precise estimate, the result may not be accurate, as it is lower than both the 2008 and 2006 estimates.
• Fall 2006 population estimate: 151 caribou (90% C.I. 126-207). We located 111 caribou and 11 of 15 radio-collared caribou. Waiting for good snow conditions contributed to a more successful survey.
• Fall 2005 estimate was 147 (90% C.I. 104-276). We located 82 caribou and 5 of 9 collars without the use of telemetry.
• 1988 minimum number: 153 (population guess: 175-200)

Calf recruitment

• March 2009: 39 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 23-54)
• March 2008: 21 calves per 100 cows (90% C.I. 13-30)

In the past four years, recruitment values have fluctuated high-low-high-low. Calf recruitment was higher in March 2007 compared to 2006: 13 calves per 100 cows (90% CL = 7-20) in 2006; 42 calves per 100 cows (90% CL = 31-53) in 2007.

Genetic diversity via fecal DNA collection

Preliminary results indicate that DNA-based mark-recapture modeling may be a valuable tool in estimating caribou population size. There are still some discrepancies between the visual survey estimates and DNA mark-recapture estimates, but year-to-year consistency in the DNA-based estimates, in addition to good precision, gives us confidence in the method. We report here only on preliminary findings, and expect that some findings may change.

Canadian Rockies Woodland Caribou Project Program

• Parks Canada, a partner in this regional research program, has collaborated on objectives related to predator/prey dynamics by relocating wolf kill-sites from four packs within Jasper National Park. Packs varied in their diet composition, location of kill-sites, and number of kills per unit time. Raw data were provided to PhD candidate Nick DeCesare for future analysis.

Primary-prey aerial surveys

• Twenty-three elk were collared in Jasper National Park, including 9 GPS collars. We used collars for mark-resight population estimates of elk (via aerial survey) in early winter 2008 and 2009. Survey units were stratified and methods followed guidelines set forth by Unsworth et al. (1994).
• Elk were estimated at 410 (90% C.I. 337-483) in 2008 at 435 (90% C.I. 368-502) in 2009 for Jasper National Park, not including the Brazeau drainage.

Gastrointestinal nematodes in Jasper National Park

• In partnership with University of Calgary researcher Nathan deBruyn, Parks Canada collected and analyzed fecal samples from caribou in the A la Peche and Tonquin herds.
• Samples from the A la Peche (collected in June) showed 100% prevalence for gastrointestinal nematodes in fecal pellets, while samples from the Tonquin (collected in August) showed 87% prevalence.
• The A la Peche animals had noticeably higher egg counts than those sampled from the Tonquin, though this may have been a seasonal variation. Follow-up work will take place in summer 2009.

Communications

Jasper National Park staff have delivered messages and presentations related to caribou to a wide audience in the form of field trips, lawn displays, television appearances, informal and formal talks, and participation in Parks Canada events.

Executive summary

Phase I of the Jasper Woodland Caribou Recovery Action Plan was implemented in 2005. Its larger goals were to increase awareness of woodland caribou and recommend a suite of actions to mitigate factors contributing to caribou decline. Implementation of recovery actions began in the 2005-2006 fiscal year, shortly after the Plan was signed by Parks Canada. Phase I is due to finish in 2007, after which further consultation with the Recovery Action Team and others will ensue in order to develop Phase II. In the meantime, we report here on Phase I progress and continued caribou monitoring as part of the Jasper Caribou Project, which began in 2001.

In this progress report, details on many of the recommended actions as part of Phase I of the Action Plan are included, such as:

• Implement dynamic speed limits and educational efforts to reduce the number of caribou-vehicle collisions
• Step-up enforcement/compliance on road speeds in caribou areas
• Eliminate use of road salt in caribou wintering areas or deter caribou from highways using lithium chloride.
• Restrict dogs to trails that are not in important caribou habitat
• Track-set ski routes into non-caribou habitat to offer skiers options
• Minimize off-trail use in areas with high quality caribou habitat
• Prevent new trails from developing in areas of important caribou habitat
• Educate trail users to promote personal choices that benefit caribou
• Promote recreation use only in areas that don't have key seasonal caribou habitat
• Create guidelines for aircraft flying near high quality caribou habitat
• Investigate the use of fladry to inhibit wolf travel on packed trails in winter
• Protect or enhance high quality caribou habitat using fire management

Preliminary results – phase I and caribou monitoring program

Radio-collaring

• Aim to maintain 20 radio collars (emphasis on VHF collars) on caribou in order to increase precision in population parameter estimates and trend.
• Current collar distribution is 6 in the Brazeau (4 GPS; 2 VHF), 3 in the Maligne (2 GPS; 1 VHF), and 13 in the Tonquin (5 GPS; 8 VHF).
• Parks Canada has maintained GPS and VHF collars on wolves in the Signal, Sunwapta, and Maligne/Brazeau packs. The Medicine pack has not been observed in recent years; they may have moved off or otherwise dispersed.

Population estimates

• Fall 2006 population estimate for South Jasper: 151 caribou (90% C.I. 126-207). We located 111 caribou and 11 of 15 radio-collared caribou. Waiting for good snow conditions contributed to a more successful survey.
• Fall 2005 estimate was 147 (90% C.I. 104-276). We located 82 caribou and 5 of 9 collars without the use of telemetry.
• Fall 2004 population estimate: 100 caribou (90% C.I. 60-255). We located 43 caribou and 3 of 7 radio-collared caribou.
• Fall 2003 survey population estimate: 107 (95%C.I. 88-158)
• 1988 minimum number: 153 (population guess: 175-200)

Calf recruitment

• Calf recruitment was lower in March 2006 compared to 2005: 13 calves per 100 cows (90% CL = 7-20) in 2006; 23 calves per 100 cows (90% CL = 10-33) in 2005. In March 2007, calf recruitment was calculated at 42 calves per 100 cows (90% CL = 31-53).

Genetic diversity via faecal DNA collection

• New partnership with Micheline Manseau of Parks Canada aims to develop and refine non-invasive monitoring techniques.
• Collected 173 “marks” and 94 “recaptures” in two scat collection surveys to be used in a population estimate. Samples have been sent to Dr. Manseau for analysis.

Fladry experiment

• During the winter of 2005-2006, Jasper National Park initiated a project to examine using fladry as a means of deterring wolves from using trails. Six trails were chosen for treatment and monitoring.
• 83 transect surveys were conducted at fladry sites; wolf tracks were observed a total of 24 times (controls and fladry-present). Wolves diverted their path away from the observation transect during two (of 13) occurrences at control sites. Wolves diverted their movement path during two (of 11) occurrences during the treatment phase.
• There was no significant effect of treatment on wolf avoidance of trails (df= 19, p = 0.650). There was also no significant effect of number of wolves present (df = 19, p = 0.424) or snow depth (df = 19, p = 0.456) on wolf avoidance of fladry gates.
• No evidence that fladry was an effective measure to deter wolves from utilizing human-packed trails; although sample sizes are small, we do not anticipate continuing this experiment.

Highway signs and speed monitoring

• We monitored day and night travel speeds at various locations (70kph zone and 90kph zone) on the Parkway in winter 2005.
• During the daylight hours, a significantly smaller proportion of drivers sped through the 70kph zone when their speed was posted or when a message flashed as compared to when no message or radar was present. At night, a larger proportion of drivers sped when a message or radar posting was present as compared to no message or radar.
• In the 90kph zone, there was no difference between the proportion speeding when a message was present or when radar was present during the daylight hours. At night, a significantly smaller proportion of drivers sped when their speed was posted using radar.

Lithium chloride on highways

• We are testing the addition of lithium chloride to regions where caribou are known to access the highway – on Highway 93 and the Maligne Lake road.
• More animals were noted in control (untreated) areas, but sample sizes are very small to date. More data are required, probably several years’ worth, before final conclusions are drawn.
• Recommend extending the site to the north at Beauty Creek.

Track-setting in new areas

• New cross-country ski options were made available around the town-site and track setting was moved away from areas that were in caribou habitat. Trails are being monitored for human and wildlife use, but data have not yet been compiled.

Increased enforcement and compliance regarding dog regulations

• Very few cases of non-compliance were enforced. Remote camera monitoring detected more occasions of non-compliance.
• In general, compliance was good with the no-dogs in caribou habitat regulation.

Effect of telemetry flights and aircraft on caribou

• We used existing data from GPS collars and historic telemetry flights to look at longer-term effects of flights on caribou movement.
• The presence of a flight did not affect movement rates from before the flight compared to after the flight, at either a 1-day or 5-day time interval.
• Caribou moved at a significantly greater rate on the day of a flight compared to five days following the flight, when their movement rates decreased substantially.

Executive summary

The South Jasper Woodland Caribou Research Project started in 2001 to address the following objectives:

1. Establish confidence limits around population estimates, survival rates, and calf recruitment rates to determine whether the caribou population in South Jasper is decreasing.
2. Quantify the level of genetic isolation of caribou in Tonquin, Maligne, and North Banff.
3. Determine what topographic and vegetative factors affect the caribou distribution and then create predictive maps of caribou habitat quality.
4. Examine how people affect caribou habitat quality.
5. Determine whether caribou are subject to higher predation risk in winter because of wolf access to caribou range on ploughed roads and packed ski trails.
6. Identify factors affecting terrestrial and arboreal lichen occurrence and develop fire management guidelines to protect or improve lichen abundance.
7. Communicate research results to the public.
8. Use research results to assist with caribou recovery.

Preliminary results

Radio-collaring

• Retrieved data from 7 GPS collared caribou in Fall 2004. Unable to retrieve data from 3 GPS collared caribou because of water damage (two caribou died in water).
• Retrieved data from 3 GPS collared wolves. Batteries failed prematurely. One wolf dispersed from Sunwapta Falls to the north east of JNP.
• Radio-collared eleven caribou in Fall 2004 (10 GPS, 1 VHF). Only one group of caribou in the Maligne Range therefore redistributed collars (3 Maligne, 4 Jonas Pass, 4 Tonquin).
• Placed GPS and VHF collars on wolves such that there was one GPS and one long lasting VHF collar on the Signal, Medicine, and Maligne (new) packs. In late winter we placed an additional GPS collar on the Signal Pack. One Signal wolf dispersed east of Saskatchewan Crossing where it was killed outside BNP.

Population estimates

• Fall 2004 population estimate: 100 caribou (95% C.I. 56-336). Found 43 caribou and 3 of 7 radio-collared caribou. Missing caribou were in treed areas of the upper subalpine. Patchy snow and harsh light conditions created difficult survey conditions.
• Fall 2003 survey population estimate: 107 caribou (95% C.I. 86-174). Found 78 caribou and 8 of 11 radio-collared caribou.
• 1988 minimum number: 153 (population guestimate 175-200)
• Recommend evaluating the benefits of conducting population surveys in mid-summer when caribou are almost exclusively in the alpine.

Calf recruitment

• Calf recruitment was high in March 2004 and 2005: 32 calves per 100 cows (95% CL = 15-53) in 2004; 23 calves per 100 cows (95% CL = 11 – 40) in 2005.

Survival

• Caribou were 3.8 times more likely to survive from 2001-2005 compared to 1988-1991. Survival rates were very low from 1988-1991 (12 mortalities in 29 caribou years) and were relatively high from 2001-2005 (3 mortalities in 29 caribou years).
• Low sample sizes lead to large uncertainty in survival estimates. In 2001-2005, annual survival rate was 0.932 (95% C.I. = 0.566-0.989).

Genetic diversity

• Second year of DNA samples were sent for analysis, but we have not received the analysis.
• From the few samples sent in the first year, preliminary results suggest that caribou in the Maligne and Tonquin have high genetic variability (indicates movement between subpopulations) but had surprisingly different alleles (genetic composition). Caribou in Banff had 3 times less genetic variability compared to caribou in Jasper.
• No radio-collared caribou from 1988-1991 (29 caribou years) or from 2001-2005 (29 caribou years) have travelled between the Maligne and Tonquin, north of Highway 16, nor south of Highway 11 into Banff.

Caribou habitat and trails

• Created models of caribou resource selection for each ecoregion (Alpine and Subalpine) and for each season: Summer (June-August), Fall (September-November), Winter (December-February), and Spring (March-May). Created predictive maps of caribou occurrence for Banff and Jasper.
• Added distance to low and medium use trails to the resource selection models.
• Caribou had stronger negative associations with trails in the Alpine compared to the Subalpine.
• 80% of caribou had negative associations with trails in the Alpine during Summer and Fall.
• Less than 40% of caribou had negative associations with trails in the Alpine during Winter and Spring and in the Subalpine (except Winter when ~50% of the caribou avoided trails).

Wolf travel routes and Trails

• Wolves selected roads as travel routes in all seasons except Summer.
• Wolves selected trails as travel routes in all seasons except Fall.
• Wolves more strongly selected trails at high elevation compared to low elevations in Winter and Spring.

Caribou, wolves, and people

• Two mechanisms may explain why caribou were negatively associated with trails: (1) avoid the presence of people on trails (2) reduce their risk of predation from wolves that travel on trails. The first mechanism (avoidance of people) is more likely in the alpine during summer and fall. The second mechanism is more likely in the subalpine during winter.

Executive summary

Implementing recovery actions will first require research to better assess the status of woodland caribou and to determine causes of the current decline. Then, monitoring will be required to determine the effectiveness of recovery plan implementation. The South Jasper Woodland Caribou Project will provide information to support recovery efforts. The specific objectives of this study are:

1. Establish confidence limits around population estimates and determine whether the caribou population in South Jasper is decreasing.
2. Determine what topographic and vegetative factors affect the caribou distribution and then create predictive maps of caribou habitat quality.
3. Determine what factors affect wolf distribution and create a predictive map of wolf occurrence.
4. Examine how human activity and human developments affect both wolf and caribou distributions.
5. Determine whether caribou are subject to higher predation risk in winter because of wolf access to caribou range on ploughed roads and packed ski trails.
6. Determine levels of caribou movement between the Maligne and Tonquin ranges.
7. Identify factors affecting terrestrial and arboreal lichen occurrence and develop fire management guidelines to protect or improve lichen abundance.

Study design

The first full year of the project began in 2002/03 and included a number of elements. A study design was first developed in conjunction with external wildlife specialists and park stakeholders in early 2002. The environmental assessment for the research project included the results of a study design workshop and was made available for public review in December 2002. A second study design workshop, held in January 2003, identified a range of options for experimentally manipulating human use in the Maligne Valley of Jasper National Park. The human-use treatment for years 3 and 4 will be decided in early 2004.

Collaring

As a pilot study, two caribou were fitted with GPS collars in October 2001. These collars were removed the following spring and ten caribou were fitted with GPS collars in October 2002 and one caribou retained a VHF collar from the previous year. Seven and three GPS collars were deployed in the Maligne and Tonquin ranges respectively. Approximately four groups of caribou represented most caribou in the Maligne range. While the caribou did not show strong fidelity to a particular group, additional collars in the Maligne would have provided little additional information on caribou distributions. Four wolves in two wolf packs were also fitted with GPS collars in March 2003. All four collars failed by October 2003. This progress report discusses the results of caribou and wolf data collected from the first full year of this study (October 2002 through October 2003). All ten caribou and all four wolf GPS collars were redeployed for the second full year of this study in fall – early winter 2003. Throughout the study weather data are being collected at Environment Canada weather stations and human use data are being collected with back-country camping permits and remote road and trail counters.

Population estimate and trend

Due to funding limitations and the early onset of winter conditions, no population survey was conducted in southern Jasper National Park in 2002. The population survey in 2003 found 78 animals. This was above the 2001 count of 48 animals suggesting the 2001 result was an anomaly but still well below the 1993-2000 average of 110 animals. A population estimate of 107 was calculated based on a re-sighting of 8 out of 11 radio-collared animals. Compared to the number of animals counted in 1988 (153) and the rough 1988 population estimate of between 175-200 animals, the 2003 count and population estimate represent a decline of almost 50% in the south Jasper herd. The most pronounced decline was in the Maligne area where only 19 animals were counted compared to a high of 68 in 1998.

Three caribou were killed from collisions with vehicles on Highway 93 south of Sunwapta Falls during 2002/03. This was the most caribou killed by vehicles in Jasper National Park for more than a decade and represents approximately 3% of the total South Jasper population. In response to these mortalities, road side signage was developed and installed on Highway 93 South between Jonas Slide and Tangle Hill to warn motorists about caribou frequenting this area.

Caribou movements

Caribou travelled along the Maligne Range from Signal Mountain as far as Poboktan Pass. They ranged throughout the Tonquin and one caribou travelled into the upper Fraser River of B.C. and into Hugh Allen Creek then later returned to the Tonquin. No caribou travelled between the Maligne and Tonquin ranges. Caribou appeared to travel less during deep snows and cold temperatures but these climatic conditions did not appear to affect their elevational distribution. Wolves approached within 1 and 2 km of caribou on 2 and 8 occasions during summer 2003. Caribou did not increase their distance travelled after these encounters.

Caribou resource selection

Caribou selected mid- to high elevations throughout the year and spent more time in the alpine in summer compared to winter. Caribou selection of most topographic and vegetative features depended on both season and ecoregion. For instance, when in the subalpine they selected open spruce – subalpine fir forests over pine forests year round. They selected forests greater than 150 years old in winter but not summer. Similarly, caribou selected areas with low solar radiation and with well drained soils in winter but not summer. Caribou rarely travelled within 500 m of roads, but the apparent effect of roads in the resource selection models was accounted for by other correlated covariates such as elevation. Caribou avoided trails with high human use in summer (alpine and subalpine) and winter (subalpine only). They neither selected nor avoided high use trails in the winter in the alpine presumably because very few high winter use trails exist in the alpine.

Lichen occurrence and abundance

Terrestrial lichens were most abundant at higher elevations and areas with well drained soils, shallow slopes, higher canopy cover and higher variation in canopy cover. Trees with abundant arboreal lichen were more likely to occur at higher elevations, in areas with shallow slopes, in older forests, in forests with a higher proportion of spruce, and forests with large basal areas (larger trees rather than just a higher density of trees). The relative importance of terrestrial versus arboreal lichens has not been quantified.

Wolf movements

The two wolf packs occupied different territories in the Maligne and Athabasca Valleys. The home range estimate for the TVC wolf pack equaled an area of 413 km2 that extended from 12 Mile bridge in the northeast to Meadow Creek in the west and Hardisty Hill in the south. The home range estimate for the Medicine wolf pack equaled an area of 560 km2 that extended within the Maligne Valley from the Maligne Hostel in the north to Maligne Lake in the south and the Rocky river in the east. The TVC and Medicine pack home range estimates overlapped the combined Maligne caribou home ranges by 24 and 196 square kilometres respectively. The size of both wolf home ranges appears to have increased since the time of GPS collar recovery based on ongoing monitoring of VHF collared animals.

The daily distances travelled by the wolves during the study period were not significantly different for the collared members of the two packs. The Medicine pack wolves travelled a median distance of 2.6 kilometers per day with a maximum distance of 43.8 kilometers in one day. The TVC pack wolves travelled a median distance of 4.3 kilometers per day with a maximum distance of 52 kilometers in one day. Both wolf packs appeared to travel shorter daily distances in April and May, and longer daily distances through June, July, and August. The Medicine wolf pack spent most of its time in the lower and upper subalpine ecoregions while the TVC pack spent most of its time in the montane ecoregion.

The relationship of wolf locations to various topographic and human use features was also explored.

Communications

Communications and public consultation included study design workshops and presentations as well as regular summer programs at the Whistler Campground. Numerous communications products were prepared in 2002/03 including a project newsletter, roadside and trail signage and observation cards.

Executive summary

Population surveys of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in southern Jasper National Park, northern Banff National Park, the White Goat Wilderness Area and Siffleur Wilderness Area were conducted as part of a joint initiative between Parks Canada and Alberta Environmental Protection to assess the status of this species within protected areas in west-central Alberta. In recent years, woodland caribou in these areas have been in decline and increased monitoring efforts have been proposed.

This work complements efforts by the West-central Alberta Caribou Standing Committee to standardize monitoring of woodland caribou in west-central Alberta and address issues related to woodland caribou conservation through directed research.

A total of 50 animals were located in 18.4 hours of aerial surveys. No animals were located in the Siffleur Wilderness Area. Only one adult, male caribou was located in each of northern Banff National Park and the White Goat Wilderness Area. A total of forty-eight animals were located in southern Jasper National Park. This represents less than 50% of the long-term average count of 110 animals for south Jasper but may not reflect actual population size. Survey timing and conditions were similar to previous years, but anecdotal information suggests that woodland caribou may have moved out of the alpine earlier than normal and into the subalpine where they are more difficult to locate.

A population viability analysis conducted in 2002 for the population of Woodland Caribou occupying southern Jasper National Park suggests that this population is not viable. The analysis indicated a negative growth rate for the population and predicted extirpation in a mean time of approximately 40 years (Flanagan 2002).

In the fall of 2001, four adult, female woodland caribou were captured and collared in southern Jasper National Park as part of a pilot study to assess the effectiveness of GPS collars in the Maligne Valley. This was intended as preliminary fieldwork prior to initiation of a long-term research and monitoring program in southern Jasper National Park. Initial efforts to capture and collar some of the few remaining woodland caribou in northern Banff National Park were unsuccessful.

The Southern Mountain and Boreal populations of woodland caribou are now classified as threatened in Canada (COSEWIC 2000), Blue-listed in Alberta, and Red-listed in British Columbia. Based on this classification, the proposed Species at Risk legislation will require development of a recovery plan for woodland caribou. Such an initiative will require improved population monitoring and research to assess the status of woodland caribou, determine causes of the current decline, and monitor the effectiveness of recovery plan implementation.

The proposed research and monitoring program for Jasper National Park is expected to increase the rigor of population monitoring and address a number of the management concerns related to woodland caribou conservation in the Jasper National Park.